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Chapter 1 Promises,
Promises:
The Future is
Always.
It's the spring of 1993 and the fiber-optic Info
Bahn is just a few months away... The April 12th,
1993 Cover of Time Magazine proclaims: "The Info
Highway: Bringing a Revolution in Entertainment,
News and Communication: Coming Soon to your TV
Screen...". (6) The story continues:
"It's not here yet, but it's arriving
sooner than you think...Suddenly the brave new
world of videophone and smart TVs that futurists
have been predicting for decades is not years
away but a few months... We won't have to wait
long. By this time next year, vast new video
services will be available at a price to
millions of Americans." [emphasis
added]
Welcome to the Information Age: Again and
again... and again.
The Information Age has always been 'just around
the corner" with words, such as "soon", "next
year", and "tomorrow" describing when this
miraculous use of technologies and networks will
change the world for the better. As best as we can
tell, the term "Information Age" was
coined in the 1960's by AT&T's public
relations department, and it is a polyglot phrase
that can mean almost anything you can think of. The
author is reminded of meetings in the 1980's that
used the term "Information Products" to
describe everything from 900 number sex lines to
home shopping.
"Information Theory", the basis for terms
using Information-Anything, was developed at Bell
Labs in 1948 almost 50 years ago. One of
Information Theory's principles is that digitizing
something turns it into all ones and zeros ÷
and to a computer, well, that's all just
information.
The Information Superhighway, sometimes called
everything from the "Info Bahn" to the "I-Way",
like the Information Age, is another polyglot term.
Coined by Vice President Al Gore in the 1970's. It
has come to describe the future communications
network and applications, from the fiber-optic
conduit to the Information Age products and
services carried over the wires and through the
air.
As Vice President Gore put it: (7)
"When I first introduced the concept
back in the 1970's, the only company that showed
any interest at all was Corning Glass, which,
for some mysterious reason saw the potential in
a nationwide fiber-optic network. (National
Journal, 3/20/93)
Superhighway Feeding Frenzy Fuel: (The I-Way
Go-Go Years)
By the early 1990's a confluence of events
brought what can only be described as a
techno-crescendo of I-Way dreams. It was fueled, in
part, by an aggressive administrative policy lead
by Vice President Gore to get business to build the
I-Way. The telecom and cable giants saw this as the
something that would make them barrels of new
money, but also give them leverage to remove
regulation on the federal, as well as the state
level.
The other parts that would supposedly make the
I-Way dreams real was the proposed mega-deals of
1992-1994, such as Bell Atlantic and TCI for $33
billion, or Southwestern Bell and Cox, and US West
and Time Warner. They were all "a sure thing". Who
could have doubted that $90 billion dollars of new
marriages and partnerships wouldn't bring the
future that much faster. Even after the TCI deal
was history, Ray Smith, CEO of Bell Atlantic, was
still in bravura mode. Interviewed in Wired
Magazine, 2/95, he said: (8)
"I would say that by the year 2000,
we'll have 50% of the cable business. No doubt
about it. Which is why the cable companies are
in a panic. Meanwhile, the cable companies won't
have even 5% of the telephone revenues in their
best markets."
There were a few people with a bit more reality
in their assessments of the Info Highway. Sumner
Redstone, Chairman of Viacom, (a conglomerate which
now owns Paramount, Blockbuster, cable channels and
Viacom Productions) spoke at the National Press
Club in October, 1993. (9) He said:
"It seems to me not to be a 500 channel
information Superhighway but rather a road to
Fantasy Land. The assumption that individuals
will suddenly transform themselves into
renaissance men and women with the potential of
information and entertainment is an
understatement.
"While we may anxiously await that
fully-interactive, individually tailored, all
encompassing home entertainment and information
appliance with the greatest anticipation, the
truth of the matter is that plain old television
is going to be around for a long time.
"It's gonna cost a lot more, It's gonna take
a lot longer, if we ever get there, and there is
no guarantee that the customer is willing to
pick up the price tag."
But Redstone's concerns were all drowned out by
the roar of the politicians and pundits' noise.
And the Promises?
According to Baby Bell annual reports and press
announcements from 1993-94, by 1997 there would be
almost 20 million households wired to the all
digital, 500 channel, full-motion video network, 45
million by the year 2000. For example:
US West, 1993 Annual Report
(10)
"In 1993 the company announced its
intentions to build a 'broadband', interactive
telecommunications network... US West
anticipates converting 100,000 access lines to
this technology by the end of 1994, and 500,000
access lines annually beginning in 1995."
[emphasis added]
Ameritech Investor Fact Book, March 1994
(11)
We're building a video network that
will extend to six million customers within six
years. [emphasis added]
NYNEX, 1993 Annual Report (12)
We're prepared to install between 1.5 and 2
million fiber-optic lines through 1996 to begin
building our portion of the Information
Superhighway. [emphasis added]
And we are not talking about the Internet or
World Wide Web. The Superhighway, based on
fiber-optics, is "broadband", able to supply
hundreds of times more information for enhanced
interactive services, while the Net is
'narrowband', based on available phone wiring. It's
the difference between a Ferrari and a skateboard.
And the promises were that the Info Highway
would fix everything ÷ Tele-Medicine,
Tele-Learning, even new jobs. For example, Deloitte
& Touche's "New Jersey Telecommunications
Infrastructure Study, 1991", dubbed "Opportunity
New Jersey" (a Bell Atlantic state) proclaimed that
the Info Highway was: (13)
"essential for New Jersey to achieve the level
of employment and job creation in that state"
"advance the public agenda for excellence in
education"
"improve quality of care and cost reduction in
the healthcare industry".
Meanwhile, in 1993, Ray Smith, CEO of Bell
Atlantic, exclaimed at the "Electronic Summit"
conference: (14)
"Imagine a button on your TV that you push to
get your pizza, without the fuss and problems.
"Bell Atlantic will have the first virtual VCR,
and 100,000 people by the end of the year (1993)
buying things over transactional services. We will
never get into the car and jump down to the store
once we get used to the idea of any kind of network
offering."
In fact, in Bell Atlantic's 1993 Annual Report,
the company announced they were the "leaders" of
the Info Bahn, and that they would be spending $11
billion dollars. (15)
"First, we announced our intention to lead the
country in the deployment of the information
highway... We will spend $11 billion over the
next five years to rapidly build full-service
networks capable of providing these services within
the Bell Atlantic Region." [emphasis
added]
Another Bell's 1994 annual report was even more
bullish than Ray Smith. Pacific Telesis' President
Philip Quigley boldly announced that they were
going to spend a whopping $16 billion dollars. (16)
"In November 1993, Pacific Bell announced a
capital investment plan totaling $16 billion over
the next seven years to upgrade core network
infrastructure and to begin building California's
"Communications superhighway". This will be an
integrated telecommunications, information and
entertainment network providing advanced voice,
data and video services. Using a combination of
fiber optics and coaxial cable, Pacific Bell
expects to provide broadband services to more than
1.5 million homes by the end of 1996, 5 million
homes by the end of the decade." [Emphasis
added]
Unfortunately, almost nothing was ever built and
promises were never kept.
Today there are no full-motion-video,
fiber-optic homes, except for tests, and the
telephone companies cannot even supply two
telephone calls over the same wire.
US West told the New York Times (9/26/1995), it
can't be built today. (17)
"US West said it had ended its
experiment into interactive television shopping
because it cost too much and the technology was
out of reach... John O'Farrell, president of US
West Interactive Services Group said the
technology to create two-way television and
sophisticated programming production was years
away and more expensive than originally thought.
But the hype continues, regardless of the
reality. For example, even though Pacific Telesis
stopped all of its major highway plans and never
spent the money, a press release from SBC
Communications, April 1st, 1997, touting their
purchase of Pacific Telesis, stated that Quigley
led Pac Tel's $16 billion broadband Info Bahn
project. (18)
"During Quigley's tenure, Quigley led
PacTel's comprehensive $16 billion network
redesign program, which involved construction of
a broadband information superhighway."
[emphasis added]
Continued in the book·
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