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 As savvy telecom consultants would say --- "if the commercial markets are talking about the product it already died."- A possible future is as follows -- Mike Powell killed off wireline ISP and broadband competition removing line sharing, UNE- prices to competitors become non-profitable for voice competition, the Bells get exclusive use of any upgrades of fiber-optics in the networks, which stops all competitors from using anything but 64K. The cable companies are closed to any ISPs or competitors currently, and for the forseeable future. And the cities and munis have to go to battles to try to regain their rights to rewire their own territories. The Bells and cable companies own the broadband markets, and the Long distance and voice phone markets are kept by the Bells through predatory pricing of bundles. VOIP has no play, since: a) the Bells and cablecos require that you buy voice from them (who cares if its VOIP) --- So they own voice and data services. b) the Bells fiber is a myth and never reaches very high speeds -- why bother, they won't have to extend the fiber to the home, just 500 feet from the home after competitors are gone. c) the Bells and cablecos give any competitive VOIP offering inferior access --- or competitors are left to scrounge. Who cares if the Bells sell VOIP or any other phone or data service... yawn. The Bells also own wireless, which is both an enhancement of the current telco products, as well as a cannablizer -(70%+ of the US has a cell phone while only 3% of customers have left their wireline phone)- but since there won't be more than 2 or three left -- Cingular -(which is SBC and Bellsouth) bought AT&T , and Verizon (which is NYNEX, GTE, Bell Atlantic and the wireless products of the original Pac Bell and Qwest through Vodaphone) -- simply expanding their monopolies or duopolies. Everything is cross subsidized and being paid for by the local telco product, which is still getting a great deal of revenues, and lines are going up, since customers drop lines when they get DSL (thus a loss of a second line but not the revenue), but they also got long distance, a new product, which is now on 50% of their lines through packages --- more revenue per customer -- who cares about wires. Competitive LD dies or is eaten because it can't compete with packages priced at predatory levels. Wifi and wireless broadband will increase in niches where there isn't serious rollouts of other products, underserved areas, ---but there are still problems with deployments because the spectrum is limited. Vonage, etc -- who cares? If the Bells and cablecos force everyone on broadband to buy their own offerings, these companies are toast ---- just as predicted years ago by consultants who realized that voice and broadband consolidation is the real issue. VOIP will also be killed by Powell because he won't keep the networks "open", and he gave away the networks VOIP rides over... duh... And what's left of VOIP will be limping, since any price arbitrage will be taken away once the taxes and surcharges are laid-on like too much cheap makeup. And one thing most analysts always seem to forget -- Don't listen to industry wisdom, it's created by heavy-telecom-users who don't represent the average public. Watch daytime TV and look who has the advertising budgets -- which is what the consumer will know of available products and services. Also, this is about power and control, not technology --- look who controls the agenda through campaign finance of the state commissions, leglistatures, congressmen, and has a bevy of fake think tanks, astroturf groups, and enough money to drown out public interest. Congressmen like former Billy Tauzin, former Chair of the Commerce Committee, who nominated Powell, who's son and fundraisers worked for BellSouth, who's staffers were from the phone companies and broadcast industry, and who created various bills and positions, helped to move the agenda to this point. --- and defending the competition is..... ????? Since Powell has given the Bells their wish list, and regulatory capture is the Republican's idea of deregulation --- The FCC's name is changed to "Forget Customers and Competitors." The current decision --- Yawn. Let's make VOIP interstate to keep it away from the states --- but let's make sure it can be charged other fees when it hits the phone networks, and given inferior status because the customer-funded networks are in control of private companies with exclusive use.... Early adopters, reporters who quote press releases, paid-off politicians and pundits claim that VOIP is going to change everything... again. Then Congress adds new taxes and surcharges. the customer calls Verizon to order his DSL or cable modem and is told they have to order voice and LD, is offered a sucky wireless package with hidden charges -- but that's all they know or were offered... Who else is advertising? Who can afford to compete? Bruce Kushnick, Teletruth author of "The Dirty, Little, Secret Lives of Phone Bills" |